Category Archives: dry bulk
2020 Bulkers is the newly established dry bulk investment vehicle of Mr Tor Olav Trøim (50% ownership), in partnership with Titan Opportunities Fund (20%) and former Clarksons Platou partner Fredrik Halvorsen (20%). We estimate a NAV of NOK 16.3/sh, but base our NOK 31/sh target price on a weighted average of future asset price appreciation models after a 10% discount. We believe a small discount is warranted as there are still some road to be covered before realizing the potential value appreciation behind our forecast, including a likely equity raise in order to pay the next newbuilding installments in 3Q18E (or options declared in 1Q18E).
The company currently
The 3Q17 report was a bit soft in our view, with average TCE of $9.6k/d vs our 10.7 forecast and G&A $2m higher than expected. Thus, EBITDA of $26m came in below our $35m forecast and consensus at 30m. EPS of -0.12 compares with our +0.02 forecast and consensus’ -0.02. No significant surprises in the report, but we lift our near-term estimates as the company reports 80% of fleet days in 4Q17 locked in at $12.6k/d (vs our $11.3 estimate). Although we see short term downside risk to shares from falling spot rates, significant price depreciation would represent an opportunity to BUY the share. We reiterate our 1y TP of $14/sh.DOWLOAD
- TCE at USD 9.2k/d vs our forecast of 13.5k/d (100% utilization basis).
- Opex at USD 5.2k/d (+13% q/q) vs our forecast of USD 4.6k/d.
- Above weakness somewhat mitigated by G&A at USD 1.3m vs our USD 1.6m forecast.
- EPS adj. -0.13 vs our forecast of +0.02, after adjusting for a USD 11.4m one-off related to debt repayment
- TP upgraded to USD 2.9/sh (from 2.7)
GoodBulk continues its rapid growth, acquiring seven modern Capesizes from CarVal (Cargill) with options for a further six. We believe the deal is highly accretive to current GoodBulk shareholders (NOK 5.7/sh), with the optionality on six more vessels adding upside. Comparative to recent S&P transactions, we estimate a steel discount of 6-13%. We reiterate our BUY and raise our TP to 157 (153).
Golden Ocean has closed a 11.7m share issuance at USD 8.5/sh to finance the acquisition of two modern Capesizes from Hemen and to raise gross USD 66m in cash. After this latest equity issuance and given the improved market fundamentals, Golden Ocean intends to terminate the covenant waivers on the recourse debt in order to facilitate M&A activities and dividends. We reiterate our BUY rating and nudge up our target price to USD 9.7 (9.5).
As we correctly pointed out in mid-April, share prices were likely to be impact from the falling iron ore prices in 2Q. A similar pattern is developing as this report hits the press, and is key to the way forward for rates and shares in 4Q17E. Nevertheless, the low supply growth leaves us confident in the continued cyclical recovery over the next two years, and we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the Dry Bulk sector as we view the risk/reward as highly attractive in a historical context.
As we argued in our Dry Bulk: Sector Update in early April, share prices had moved too far too fast, disconnecting from the underlying fundamentals of the early expansionary phase of the cycle. We highlighted that the risk was skewed to the downside ahead of 2Q17E, and we issued three SELL recommendations and four Neutral. Since then, share prices have fallen some 30% before recovering somewhat in recent days, hitting or undershooting our target prices. Although share prices could fall even lower in the coming months, a period which is usually marked by a lull in activity ahead of an active Autumn market, we now find the risk/reward highly attractive. We upgrade the dry bulk sector to BUY (Neutral) and assign a BUY rating to nine of the 11 companies we cover.
Our top picks in the
The company recently concluded its inaugural vessels acquisition, purchasing five Capesize vessels (built 2010/11) at an en-bloc consideration of USD 139m (accretive vs our valuation of USD 156m). We expect positive momentum from further fleet growth, increased analyst/investor focus and eventually improved share liquidity. However, this is offset by the current dilutive share class structure. Thus, we initiate coverage of Hunter Maritime Acquisition with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 9.2.
The company is fairly priced on steel and has a high elasticity towards changes in asset prices at an opportune moment in the cycle. Additional attractiveness comes from a low cash break-even, although somewhat offset buy a steep fee structure and outstanding preferred shares. Thus, we initiate coverage of Safe Bulkers with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 2.4.