Category Archives: dry bulk

Weekly Wrap 30

Capesize ($23.8k/d, -4% w/w, +165% y/y) VLCC ($8.0k/d, +21% w/w, -38% y/y) VLGC ($23.0k/d, -3% w/w, +269% y/y) LNGC ($75k/d, -1% w/w, +88% y/y)...

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Posted in dry bulk, LNG carriers, LPG shipping, oil tankers, Private Nework, shipping, VLGC | Leave a comment

Weekly Wrap

Capesize ($24.5k/d, +9% w/w, +179% y/y) VLCC ($6.5k/d, -14% w/w, -58% y/y) VLGC ($24.4k/d, +21% w/w, +257% y/y) LNGC ($75k/d, -4% w/w, +88% y/y)...

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Posted in dry bulk, LNG carriers, LPG shipping, oil tankers | 2 Comments

Quarterly Shipping Update: Q2 Actuals vs Forecast

As Q2 came to an end, we analyse the actual data vs our forecast sector by sector, including latest developments going into Q3. We have also added updated peer tables for each sector. Key takes: Oil Tankers (BUY) and Dry...

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Posted in dry bulk, LNG carriers, LPG shipping, oil tankers, Private Nework, shipping, VLGC | Leave a comment

GBLK-US (BUY, TP $26/NOK 212), IPO Launched: All Systems Go for GoodBulk (v2)

As we wrote in our initial IPO update in early June, we assumed 8m new shares at $15.8/sh, or a 5% discount to NAV. Today, GoodBulk launched the IPO for 8.5m shares at a range of $15.5-$17.5/sh, well in time...

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Posted in dry bulk, shipping | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Genco Shipping (BUY, TP 24): Value Destruction

Genco Shipping raised new equity this week with concurrent vessel acquisitions, which were highly dilutive towards existing shareholders. We calculate a direct loss of $0.86/sh (-4.7%) for existing shareholders and reduce our target price to $24/sh (from $26) based on...

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Posted in _Public, dry bulk, shipping | 1 Comment

Genco Shipping (BUY, TP 26): Equity Raise Amidst Fleet Renewal (short comment)

Genco Shipping files for equity raise amidst fleet renewal 2xCape + 2xUltra firm 14% above our latest generic valuation. Mainly a sign of rising asset prices Positive read-across to the dry bulk sector in general...

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Posted in dry bulk, shipping | 1 Comment

BULK-NS (BUY, TP NOK 212), IPO Announced: All Systems Go for GoodBulk

As we highlighted in our Get Ready for Launch update in March, the then expected Q2/Q3 New York listing was announced on Friday through an F-1. Assuming a 5% discount to our current NAV, we forecast 8m new shares to...

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Posted in _Public, dry bulk, shipping | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

SALT (BUY, TP 9.5) 1Q18 Review: Indirect Dividend Yield of 5.3% (7-page report)

Short Comment: 1Q18 Review EBITDA of $18.3m slightly below our $19.4m forecast and consensus at $20.8m Realized TCE/d in the quarter of $10,726 was in-line with consensus but above GR at $10,352 Offset by both opex and G&A 8% above...

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SBLK-US (BUY, TP $23) Vessel Acquisition: The Star Shines Stronger (20-page report)

The company adds 16 vessels to one of the largest listed fleets in the industry to create a dry bulk behemoth. The deal is neutral on NAV but adds some value per share in terms of forward NAV and earnings...

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Dry Bulk Shipping: Enough Dry Powder Left for the Next Boom (78 page report)

As we stand in the seasonally weakest dry bulk market of the year, we cannot help notice that spot rates YTD are up 25%, 1y time charters are at 3y highs and that FFAs reflect the same. The only pieces...

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GOGL (BUY, TP 12.5) 4Q17 review: Dividends Begin

Golden Ocean declared a $0.10 DPS for 4Q17, spot on our forecast but taking consensus by surprise. The numbers were roughly in-line with our estimates but above consensus. The share price reacted accordingly and ended the day +2.8% d/d in...

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2018: Firing on all Cylinders (26-page report)

Never before have we been so optimistic across all sub-segments of the shipping/oil service sectors simultaneously as we now are for 2018. All segments have either just entered the expansionary phase of the business cycle, or will experience the inflection...

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Posted in _Public, dry bulk, LNG carriers, LPG shipping, Oil services, oil tankers, rig, shipping, VLGC | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

2020 Bulkers Initiation (Hold, TP NOK 31)

2020 Bulkers is the newly established dry bulk investment vehicle of Mr Tor Olav Trøim (50% ownership), in partnership with Titan Opportunities Fund (20%) and former Clarksons Platou partner Fredrik Halvorsen (20%). We estimate a NAV of NOK 16.3/sh, but...

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SBLK-US (BUY, TP 14) 3Q17 Review: Weak 3Q17 but TP unchanged

The 3Q17 report was a bit soft in our view, with average TCE of $9.6k/d vs our 10.7 forecast and G&A $2m higher than expected. Thus, EBITDA of $26m came in below our $35m forecast and consensus at 30m. EPS...

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SHIP-US (BUY, TP 2.9) 3Q17 Review

Highlights: TCE at USD 9.2k/d vs our forecast of 13.5k/d (100% utilization basis). Opex at USD 5.2k/d (+13% q/q) vs our forecast of USD 4.6k/d. Above weakness somewhat mitigated by G&A at USD 1.3m vs our USD 1.6m forecast. EPS...

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BULK-NO (BUY, TP 157) Update: Accretive Fleet Expansion

GoodBulk continues its rapid growth, acquiring seven modern Capesizes from CarVal (Cargill) with options for a further six. We believe the deal is highly accretive to current GoodBulk shareholders (NOK 5.7/sh), with the optionality on six more vessels adding upside....

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GOGL-US (BUY, TP 9.7) Update: Acquisitions & Dividends

Golden Ocean has closed a 11.7m share issuance at USD 8.5/sh to finance the acquisition of two modern Capesizes from Hemen and to raise gross USD 66m in cash. After this latest equity issuance and given the improved market fundamentals,...

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Dry Bulk Sector Update (BUY): Risk/Reward Still Attractive

As we correctly pointed out in mid-April, share prices were likely to be impact from the falling iron ore prices in 2Q. A similar pattern is developing as this report hits the press, and is key to the way forward...

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Dry Bulk: Sector Upgraded to BUY

As we argued in our Dry Bulk: Sector Update in early April, share prices had moved too far too fast, disconnecting from the underlying fundamentals of the early expansionary phase of the cycle. We highlighted that the risk was skewed to the...

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HUNT-US: Initiation (Neutral, TP 9.2)

The company recently concluded its inaugural vessels acquisition, purchasing five Capesize vessels (built 2010/11) at an en-bloc consideration of USD 139m (accretive vs our valuation of USD 156m). We expect positive momentum from further fleet growth, increased analyst/investor focus and eventually improved share liquidity. However, this is offset by the current dilutive share class structure. Thus, we initiate coverage of Hunter Maritime Acquisition with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 9.2.

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Posted in dry bulk, shipping | Tagged , | 2 Comments

SB-US: Initiation (Neutral, TP 2.4)

The company is fairly priced on steel and has a high elasticity towards changes in asset prices at an opportune moment in the cycle. Additional attractiveness comes from a low cash break-even, although somewhat offset buy a steep fee structure and outstanding preferred shares. Thus, we initiate coverage of Safe Bulkers with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 2.4.

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BULK-NS: Initiation (BUY, TP 141)

We initiate coverage of GoodBulk with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 141. Share price drivers include current undervaluation, increased analyst/investor focus, further fleet growth and improved liquidity/full stock listing. GoodBulk was newly listed on OTC in Oslo after...

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Posted in dry bulk, shipping | Tagged , | 1 Comment

GOGL-US: Acquires 16 vessels (SELL, TP USD 4.2 [4.0])

Golden Ocean today announced the acquisition of 16 dry bulk vessels for a consideration of USD 127m in shares and USD 285m in assumed debt. The acquisition and its funding structure is in our view a “no-brainer” as the shares were...

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