Tag Archives: NAT

Oil Tanker Sector Update (SELL): Disappointing Winter Market

Although we cannot rule out another dead cat bounce, this year’s winter market has been disappointing. As we predicted, VLCC spot rates peaked at $32k/d, and volatility created opportunities for the attentive investor. However, oil tanker spot rates have averaged $11.7k/d QTD vs our forecast of $13.4k/d, with lower net supply growth (0.3% q/q vs 1.0%) offset by even lower implied demand growth vs our forecast (4.8% vs 7.1%). We downgrade the sector from HOLD to SELL as we see further downside risk to share prices and asset values ahead of the inflection point in mid-‘18E.

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Suezmax Resales 10% Below Current Valuation

Summary

  • Dong-A Spica & Dong-A Capella said to have been sold @ $48 each to two sperate Greek buyers.
  • 10% below our current generic fair value for a similar vessel, which is under revision for downgrade.
  • Consistent with our September report where we forecast asset values down ~10% by 2Q18E.
  • Last comparable done was the 2018 resale RS Kaystros sold to Polembros @ $49m in late October.
  • Key takeaway: Current asset values below current broker quotes + added downside risk as the Winter market draws to an end around 1Q18.

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Oil Tanker Sector Upgraded to HOLD (SELL): Trade on Volatility as Recovery Looms

From being ready to write off the upcoming winter season a very short time ago and looking to mid-2018 for any meaningful recovery in share prices, the recent surge in scrapping has left us with a newfound cautious optimism. Using VLCC spot rates as a benchmark, we see average rates of USD 23k/d in 4Q17E with peaks towards USD 32k/d. We see opportunities for the attentive investor in the short term, but believe shares could revert to current levels or below by mid-‘18E, representing the cyclical inflection point. Also taking into account that most share prices have fallen close to our targets; we upgrade the oil tanker sector to HOLD (from SELL) and believe volatility to be key to monetary success for investors over the next six months. 

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NAT-US: Initiation (SELL, TP 4.8)

Nordic American Tankers has a fleet of  33 Suezmaxes (incl. three newbuldings) and a 23% ownership in Nordic American Offshore worth USD 15m (USD 0.15/sh). The company is currently priced at a P/NAV of 1.8 (peer avg of 0.9) and a dividend yield of 11% (peer avg 2%), which we see as challenging amidst continued falling asset prices and earnings as the cyclical trough develops. We initiate coverage with a SELL recommendation and target price of USD 4.8/sh (-32%).

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