Tag Archives: shipping
Teekay Tankers today announced the acquisition of Tanker Investments in an all-share deal which values TIL at a 21% premium to last close and which reflects a NAV-for-NAV transaction on our estimates. TIL’s shareholder will end up with 38% of NewCo vs a NAV contribution of ~39% and TNK’s shareholder with the remaining 62% with a NAV contribution of ~61%. We view the transaction as positive for both companies as TIL releases some of the massive discount to NAV which has been inherent in the share price since inception in 2014, and TNK which strengthens the balance sheet and alleviates some of our concerns around the liquidity situation through the trough. The two companies also forms a natural fit as TNK owns 11.3% of TIL and already provides technical and commercial management of TIL’s fleet. We reiterate our SELL recommendation on TNK but raise our target price to USD 1.2/sh (USD 1.1) to reflect the decreased liquidity challenge.
- “Each TIL common share will receive 3.30 Teekay Tankers Class A common shares
representing a 21% premium to TIL’s closing share price on May 31, 2017, and a 29% premium based on TNK’s 30-day volume weighted average price (VWAP)”
- “Creates the world’s largest publicly-traded mid-sized conventional tanker company
with combined total assets of $2.4 billion”
- “Upon completion of the merger, Tanker Investments’ shareholders (other than Teekay Tankers and Teekay Corporation) will own approximately 30% of the combined entity, consisting of 62 conventional tankers, including three in-chartered vessels (30 Suezmax tankers, 22 Aframax tankers, 9 LR2 Product tankers and one 50 percent-owned VLCC tanker).”
Gener8 Maritime emerged in 2015 as the result of the merger between General Maritime and Navig8 Crude Tankers. The company has a fleet of 38 oil tankers trading spot, consisting of 23 VLCCs, 10 Suezmaxes and five Aframaxes/Panamaxes. GNRT is highly leveraged and in a tight liquidity position on our base case. This, in combination with an asset value elasticity of NAV at 3x leaves us with a pessimistic view on the share price ahead of the cyclical trough. We initiate coverage of Gener8 Maritime with a SELL recommendation and target price of USD 3.8 (-29%).
Originally set up as a well-timed asset play in early 2014, the company managed to divest a small portion of its fleet before the cycle turned to recession in 2016. Thus, the focus has shifted to operations ahead of the next cyclical upturn, which we expect to materialize from 2019E. With further fall in asset prices ahead and the consistent share illiquidity factored in, we initiate coverage of Tanker Investments with a SELL recommendation and target price of NOK 33 (-25%).
We initiate coverage of GasLog with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 18. The company has a fleet of 27 LNG Carriers (including five newbuldings) with a contract coverage of 76% in 2017 and an average minimum back-log per contracted vessel of ~5.5 years. Although the secured cash-flow enables the company to pay dividends even at the trough (current annualized dividend yield at 8%), it also equates to less operational leverage at what we believe to be the expansionary point in the cycle from mid-'17. In addition, GasLog is exploring possibilities within the booming FSRU segment, and has an attractive source of financing trough its MLP (at least in the current environment of low interest rates). We find low risk and great valuation in GasLog and initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and TP of USD 18.
We initiate coverage of Flex LNG with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 17.
The company has no vessels on the water in the current trough, but four MEGI LNGC newbuildings scheduled for delivery in 2018. Given our view that the trough is finally coming to an end in 2q17 and that the expansionary phase of the cycle is imminent, we find the setup of Flex extremely attractive. Adding the strong sponsor in Mr Fredriksen, we see additional upside from future accretive deals and positive bias from investment banker analysts.
We initiate coverage of Seanergy Maritime with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 1.25.
The company has made some very attractive acquisitions at the bottom of the cycle, one example being the two 2010-built Korean Capes which have appreciated ~60% since the deal was announced six months ago.
We see recent equity issuances as accretive given the appreciation of asset prices. However, we believe a discount on the company vs peers is just given several factors; including the At-The-Market (ATM) program, recent fee structure, the class A Warrants and share illiquidity.
Valuation: Our target price of USD 1.25/sh is based on a NAV of USD 0.94/sh, but added value from the optionality of a further 10% increase in asset values which would equate to a NAV of 1.67/sh, and applying a 25% discount. The implied asset value elasticity of NAV is 79% in our calculations, which is attractive given our view of rising asset prices, but equally sensitive on the downside... We recommend the less risk averse investor to BUY the share.
The first quarter of the year definitely surprised on the upside in terms of seasonally high earnings and rising asset prices. The latter is natural when considering that most listed players have a strong currency in its share price after the recent surge, and we have seen several very accretive shares-for-ships type deals. Although we have a positive view on the dry bulk sector, we are lukewarm to the shares as too much of the cyclical upturn is already priced in. Earnings are lagging with a median EV/EBITDA of 28x in 2017E and 17x in 2018E on our estimates. Thus, we find the current valuation too steep, although with a few company-specific deviations. Any potential fall in share prices could represent an excellent opportunity to buy.