LPG Shipping: Imminent Seasonal & Cyclical Upside (31-page report)

We see the cycle turning to expansion in 2018 as supply growth turn negative and annualized demand growth continues around 10%. We also see signs of seasonal factors materializing, including more US LPG available for export, a rising price differential between Naphtha and LPG and stock building ahead of next winter. Thus, we expect an imminent upswing in spot rates from 2Q18 and forecast shares on average 94% higher in one year.