FLNG-NO: Initiation (BUY, TP 17)

We initiate coverage of Flex LNG with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 17.

The company has no vessels on the water in the current trough, but four MEGI LNGC newbuildings scheduled for delivery in 2018. Given our view that the trough is finally coming to an end in 2q17 and that the expansionary phase of the cycle is imminent, we find the setup of Flex extremely attractive. Adding the strong sponsor in Mr Fredriksen, we see additional upside from future accretive deals and positive bias from investment banker analysts.

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SHIP-US: Initiation (BUY, TP 1.25)

We initiate coverage of Seanergy Maritime with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 1.25.

The company has made some very attractive acquisitions at the bottom of the cycle, one example being the two 2010-built Korean Capes which have appreciated ~60% since the deal was announced six months ago.

We see recent equity issuances as accretive given the appreciation of asset prices. However, we believe a discount on the company vs peers is just given several factors; including the At-The-Market (ATM) program, recent fee structure, the class A Warrants and share illiquidity.

Valuation: Our target price of USD 1.25/sh is based on a NAV of USD 0.94/sh, but added value from the optionality of a further 10% increase in asset values which would equate to a NAV of 1.67/sh, and applying a 25% discount. The implied asset value elasticity of NAV is 79% in our calculations, which is attractive given our view of rising asset prices, but equally sensitive on the downside… We recommend the less risk averse investor to BUY the share.

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Dry Bulk: Sector Update

The first quarter of the year definitely surprised on the upside in terms of seasonally high earnings and rising asset prices. The latter is natural when considering that most listed players have a strong currency in its share price after the recent surge, and we have seen several very accretive shares-for-ships type deals. Although we have a positive view on the dry bulk sector, we are lukewarm to the shares as too much of the cyclical upturn is already priced in. Earnings are lagging with a median EV/EBITDA of 28x in 2017E and 17x in 2018E on our estimates. Thus, we find the current valuation too steep, although with a few company-specific deviations. Any potential fall in share prices could represent an excellent opportunity to buy.

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NE-US: Initiation (BUY, TP 12)

We initiate coverage of Noble Corporation with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 12

The company has a large fleet of attractive assets, a balanced contract backlog and a decent liquidity position. We believe the company is well positioned to take advantage of the looming expansionary phase of the cycle.

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RDC-US: Initiation (BUY, TP 20)

We initiate coverage of Rowan Companies with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 20

The company has a fleet of four UDWs and 25 jackups of which only two are currently stacked. The company’s earnings visibility is strong based on the current contract backlog, further supported by the recently announced JV with Saudi Aramco. Add to this a coffer of USD 1.3bn and improving earnings ahead, we deem the company a defensive investment at the trough, but with the a free option on a cyclical recovery.

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ATW-US: Initiation (BUY, TP 19)

We initiate coverage of Atwood Oceanics with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 19

The company has four modern UDWs/Drillships and five modern Jackups on the water, in addition to an aging Deepwater rig and two UDW newbuildings stacked at DSME until 2019/20 but deliverable at Atwood’s option.

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ESV-US: Initiation (BUY, TP 17)

We initiate coverage of Ensco with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 17

The company has 59 rigs on the water in addition to two deferred newbuildings, a market cap of USD 2.5bn and is on of the most liquid names in the industry. Despite this, we estimate the company is trading at a discount to NAV and an implied 3% discount per rig at current trough levels.

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NODL-NS: Initiation (BUY, TP 90)

We initiate coverage of Northern Drilling with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 90

All the time Seadrill remains in disarray, Northern Drilling has emerged as the new investment vehicle for Fredriksen ahead of the next cyclical upturn in the rig space. The company currently has two more or less complete semi-sub newbuildings warehoused at HHI, and the main assumption is for delivery in Jan/19.

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BORR-NS: Update (BUY, TP 60[54])

Borr Drilling today announced the LOI to purchase Transocean’s 15 jackups in addition to a USD 800m equity offering. The accretive nature of these corporate events leads us to raise our target price to NOK 60 (from 54). As we highlighted…

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SONG-NO: Initiation (BUY, TP 47)

We initiate coverage of Songa Offshore with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 47 Songa Offshore has an EV/M.cap of 6.2 (implied 16% equity ratio) and has four modern rigs on long-term contracts to Statoil until 2022/24 (three vintage…

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GOGL-US: Acquires 16 vessels (SELL, TP USD 4.2 [4.0])

Golden Ocean today announced the acquisition of 16 dry bulk vessels for a consideration of USD 127m in shares and USD 285m in assumed debt. The acquisition and its funding structure is in our view a “no-brainer” as the shares were…

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BORR-NS: Initiation (BUY, TP 54)

We initiate coverage of Borr Drilling with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 54 The company is still in its cocoon, and we believe it is about to become a butterfly at an opportune time in the cycle. Recent chatter links…

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DSX-US: Initiation (SELL, TP 3.1)

We initiate coverage of Diana Shipping with a SELL recommendation and target price of USD 3.1

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GNK-US: Initiation (Neutral, TP 10.9)

We initiate coverage of Genco Shipping with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 10.9

We find the dry cargo space very interesting and believe that the trough was 1Q16. The company is recently restructured, in a sound liquidity position and well placed to take advantage of the ongoing cyclical upturn. We find the share very reasonably priced comparative to steeper valued peers such as GOGL or SBLK, and could be contemplating a rating upgrade if the share price continues to slide.

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EGLE-US: Initiation (Neutral, TP 5.5)

We initiate coverage of Eagle Bulk with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 5.5

We find the dry cargo space very interesting and believe that the trough was 1Q16. The share is attractively priced comparative to peers, but we deem its fleet to have strong industrial qualities which is less opportune in the current point of the cycle.

Something that could spark the stagnant and peer-trailing share price into life is further corporate actions (accretive equity issuances & vessel acquisitions) in addition to increased focus from positive investment banker analysts. We do believe the share will outperform peers in the short to medium term, and suggest the hedged dry bulk investor to go long EGLE and short steeper valued peers such as GOGL or SBLK.

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SALT-US: Initiation (Neutral, TP 7.1)

We initiate coverage of Scorpio Bulkers with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 7.1 We find the dry cargo space very interesting and believe that the trough was 1Q16. The share is attractively priced comparative to peers, but…

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SBULK-NO: Initiation (Neutral, TP 41)

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SBLK-US: Initiation (SELL, TP 5.2)

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GOGL-US: Initiation (SELL, TP 4.0)

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