Category Archives: shipping
As we argued in our Dry Bulk: Sector Update in early April, share prices had moved too far too fast, disconnecting from the underlying fundamentals of the early expansionary phase of the cycle. We highlighted that the risk was skewed to the downside ahead of 2Q17E, and we issued three SELL recommendations and four Neutral. Since then, share prices have fallen some 30% before recovering somewhat in recent days, hitting or undershooting our target prices. Although share prices could fall even lower in the coming months, a period which is usually marked by a lull in activity ahead of an active Autumn market, we now find the risk/reward highly attractive. We upgrade the dry bulk sector to BUY (Neutral) and assign a BUY rating to nine of the 11 companies we cover.
Our top picks in the
Avance Gas has a fleet of 14 Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC) mainly constructed in China and South Korea. Despite the full spot rate exposure in an abysmal market, the company will retain a robust liquidity position on our estimates ahead of improving fundamentals. Trading at a 18% discount to steel values at the current trough, we see Avance as a prime target for M&A. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and target price of USD 28/sh (+36%).
Teekay Tankers has a fleet of 41 fully owned Suezmaxes and Aframax/LR2s, a 50/50 owned VLCC in addition to a handful of chartered in vessels. Despite the recently announced divestment of a 1999-built Aframax at USD 7.5m (vs our generic value at USD 9.7m) and the sale/lease-back of four modern Suezmaxes, we see a significant liquidity challenge through the trough. Assuming an abolition of dividends (5.8% yield annualized on last close) and given the Net-Loan-To-Value of ~77%, we expect further fleet divestment to have limited impact. Given our forecast of continued sliding asset prices, we look to a debt moratorium or further sale/lease-backs for a sustainable solution to take the company through the trough without diluting existing shareholders. We initiate coverage with a SELL recommendation and target price of USD 1.1/sh (-49%).
Representing the backbone of Mr Fredriksen’s oil tanker investments and spanning two decades, Frontline is still going strong after several transformational years from the verge of bankruptcy in early 2015 to the current sturdy fleet growth and pursuit of M&A possibilities. Although adding a 25% premium to underlying values, we still see significant downside to the share price given the lackluster outlook for oil tankers. We initiate coverage with a SELL rating and target price of USD 3.2 (-51%).
Flex LNG announced earlier this week the purchase of two MEGI LNGC newbuildings from Geveran (Mr. Fredriksen) at USD 180m apiece, which we view as attractive vs our generic valuation at USD 194m and as we see significant upside in asset prices over the next few years. The payment structure is 20% on completion of […]
The company is too small for most institutional investors, and we see limited prospects for growth. Despite the share illiquidity and stretched liquidity position on our estimates, we believe there is upside to the share price based on the continued massive discount on steel and our positive sector view. We initiate coverage of Awilco LNG with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 6.9 (+7%).
The company recently concluded its inaugural vessels acquisition, purchasing five Capesize vessels (built 2010/11) at an en-bloc consideration of USD 139m (accretive vs our valuation of USD 156m). We expect positive momentum from further fleet growth, increased analyst/investor focus and eventually improved share liquidity. However, this is offset by the current dilutive share class structure. Thus, we initiate coverage of Hunter Maritime Acquisition with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 9.2.
The company is fairly priced on steel and has a high elasticity towards changes in asset prices at an opportune moment in the cycle. Additional attractiveness comes from a low cash break-even, although somewhat offset buy a steep fee structure and outstanding preferred shares. Thus, we initiate coverage of Safe Bulkers with a Neutral recommendation and target price of USD 2.4.
We initiate coverage of GoodBulk with a BUY recommendation and target price of NOK 141. Share price drivers include current undervaluation, increased analyst/investor focus, further fleet growth and improved liquidity/full stock listing.